The globalized economy is accelerating economic growth and a risk for local markets exposed to destabilizing fluctuations in the global markets. Growth of the global economy has almost come to a complete stand still and political stability is tumbling.
Intelligence agency’s are encountering financial movements which present a clear and present danger for economic stability. Not recovered from the crisis of 2008, the world's biggest economy China is in crisis, an oil price below $40 a barrel (with room to slump towards $15), shrinking economies, mass unemployment and waves of migration.
The fallout can be hundreds of millions of people all at the same time losing access to their bank accounts, supplies to supermarkets, pharmacies and petrol stations. Typically the beginning of a genuine breakdown in the fabric of society, 'a great depression'.
However illegal financial streams are booming like never before.
'ISIS Comes to You' phase II ( phase I ) - Attacking the Shiite countries that because of hardliners appeared to be at war with the west was impossible, al Qaeda's ISIS is the cancer that erodes the Middle East from within. Involving all countries in the Middle East with as prime targets the three key countries Iran, Israel and Pakistan.
2016 started with severed ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a new low in relations between the two countries confirming a new era, changing the proxy war in Iraq, Syria and Yemen into one on each other soil. Disgruntled Saudis an Iranians support ISIS that has sworn to take down the leadership.
While ISIL and Boko Haram suffered big losses and loss of territory, it freed resources for asymmetrical terrorist attacks, widening their regional and international scope.
There will be significant terrorist attacks . The attacks will be spectacular maybe multiple.
Al Qaeda's ISIS is to to sow division and discord inside their enemies, exploit and reinforce the divides in society, Muslim vs. non-Muslim, Migrant versus Native. Cause public outrage and opposition from local extremist movements by inducing fear in civilian populations
Long term Al Qaeda and more recent ISIS affiliates, made terror attacks the new normal but the right analysis of the threat is "International Terrorism Acts" not limited to Islamic terrorism and the nexus Transnational Organised Crime. ( The Shadow Where Crime Becomes Ideology )
Elected officials show a lack in political will and capabilities to put a stop to it, thus accepting that the sense of Presence and Fear is the new normal. This leaves room for public outrage and creates a gap that local extremist are using to their advantage.
Not much is changed since the cold war. Democracy, justice, solidarity, relief, freedom, human rights and particularly people's peace movements are initiated from the intellectual landscape but all backed or infiltrated by foreign intelligence services.
Anti Money Laundering and counter intelligence operations within the financial services and oil/gas business revealed that new eco-systems of the old global spy networks have noticeably come to life in the domains of division and discord.
In the Middle East recent 'movements' are supported by the US and partners in the different coalitions. Russian intelligence aims for the EU’s disintegration. The best way to do so is to flood the EU with refugees and aggressively pushing (PEGIDA) right and left wing extremist groups into the streets of western Europe. In Africa's Sahara and sub Sahara. Peace and civil rights movements were initiated by Chinese and Russian intelligence, ........
Creating an explosive mix by organizing and joining public outrage, protesting both against and in support of controversial topics such as degraded civil liberties, prolonged state of emergency, alleged manipulation of elections, war efforts, immigrants, austerity, refugees, asylum seekers, beheadings, mass sexual assaults, missing and kidnapped children, gender equality, same sex marriage, et cetera.
Typically initiated from the shadows, these manipulations with malicious intent pose serious threats to the rule of law and integrity of the state. Its too late, incidents and movements started to catch the public eye, mobilizing support under the 'unwary' youth and unemployed. Prepared for a revolutionary wave of demonstrations, protests (both non-violent and violent) and riots.
For president Rouhani, sanctions relief as result of the P5+1 negotiations were crucial element of his political promise to improve life of Iranians. But with the lower oil price around $40, the partially lifted sanctions do not make a difference, nor will it change the “Good Guy Bad Guy” status between president Hassan Rouhani and the supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
The only partially lifted sanctions limit trade with the US and Asia. That steers Iran initially towards Europe for unblocked assets, necessary funding and economic growth.
Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism. Since 2008, intelligence and AML operations focused on the financial ties of Iran with the Taliban and the Hezbollah money laundering service that were and now again are a vital part of its strategy for Hezbollah and Hamas . Trade promotions and lifted financial sanctions in Europe increased that threat significantly.
For Iran and Pakistan the threat of the Khorasan Province branch is active across the whole of Afghanistan plus the adjacent parts of Pakistan, Iran and the countries in Central Asia. Al Qaeda's ISIS strategy exploits and reinforces ethnic and political divides, sow division and discord inside Iran.
The intervention in local conflicts caused regional and international launchpads for attacks. Embedded al Qaeda affiliates support the global spread of the Salafist and Wahhabi ideology within its enemies.
All South and Southeast Asian countries are infected by al Qaeda affiliates. Their support is originating from Kashmir and from longstanding AQAP connections in Yemen with AQ affiliates in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, in recent years the largest underestimated threat.
Africa is a key continent for terror networks. It is a large center of "recruitment" for the Al Qaida terror networks .
Even though the US remains a favorite target in the west, Europe is the weakest link. The pressure on al Qaeda and ISIS in North Africa, Chechnya and the Balkan is increased and Europe is attacked from there
The US military has reduced its serious capabilities (Navy Carrier Strike Groups) in the global arena. The "no boots on the ground" policy, limits its involvement to USAF, training and special operations. De facto leaving local armed conflicts to the states and populations under attack and placing other "coalition" members on the spot.
A combination of failing software, data breaches and a lack of governance ruined the credibility of US intelligence. Every single person who had some sort of connection to the US intelligence community has been compromised, and no amount of ex post facto countermeasures will ever get all of the cookies back in the jar. ALL associated data valuable to counterespionage have been compromised .
US spies and assets have become a liability to the intelligence community. It is currently depending on local intelligence contractors and started to replace all its compromised efforts with massive gathering of electronic footprints, monitoring and analysis thereof .
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