Iran, No Choice Left ... But Attack

No allies left - Squeezed by sanctions - Uprising(s) - Terrorism proxies - Decades of diplomacy that left ample time for Iran to prepare for an attack with "Microwaves From The Sky" at "The West" - No choice left ... attack - Iran Threat Scenarios

Iran is aware that, not IF but WHEN the regional support of their allies falls away, its options are limited to;


Diplomacy "so far, so good" an open end deal (- 2007)

Iran was always open to "flexibility" when it came to diplomacy and that got Iran to where its today ...... some chess-players might think "so far, so good".

Terrorism proxies ... an option (- 2011)

Because of the gradual increasing squeeze by sanctions, the axis of financial ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas had to rely more on underground (illegal) financial streams. Those financial streams are also instrumental for Iran to fund several anti US and anti Europe terror organizations operating in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Wait for uprisings to devour and divide Iran 

Iran has significant potential to be divided by its internal and cross border religious and ethnic groups that seem to be adamant to reclaim their ancient rights. (What Kurds think about Rouhani’s visit and promises in Kurdistan) Kurds, Taliban but also the Khorasan Province branch, which is active across the whole of Afghanistan plus the adjacent parts, including Iran.

Iran could try to delay that process of uprisings, also across its borders. Enabling a "Gorbachev scenario", with "Dear Mr. Rouhani tear down this wall!" (- 2014)

No choice left but ... Attack ! - "Microwaves From The Sky"  (- 2007)

Direct action is useless if it doesn't increase the chances for Iran to be a respected regional power and fulfill its destiny in the Islamic world. To attain that, Iran has to successfully attack at least one of the large (economic) stakeholders, "The West".


Europe being tactical and strategic the weakest, the United States off guard by its own (global) strategies and the decades of diplomacy that left ample time for Iran to prepare for an attack with "Microwaves From The Sky" (EMP)

First published by Ultrascan AGI in July 2007

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Israel

Motivation by Event - With today's prevailing picture of Hamas killing few Israeli (soldiers) and the Israeli army killing many elderly, women and children, Palestinian brothers and sisters in distress have become the next purpose of an Islamic State.

"This gives the largest motivational podium possible. Channeling its hatred directly to your doorstep via the global support movement of Hamas, Fatah and jihad recruiters in every civil rights organisation and university in your neighborhood. Right under your nose (!?)"

Attacks on Israel from all sides !
All current Palestinian areas and refugee camps in the surrounding areas, Gaza, west bank, south Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and the Sinai are becoming platforms for attacks on Israel. Eventually leading to a larger area necessary for the two state solution.

The USA will relapse into the usual political dilly-dally
In the early stages Israeli defense readiness is strategically limited and its allies including the USA will relapse into the usual political dilly-dally and "seem" unwilling to support aggressive steps.

When Israel is massively attacked.
"When Israel is massively attacked the Middle East will explode. 19 states will realize an Islamic State is an uncontrollable threat undermining all of them, including the suspects of supporting the fight for a Caliphate. Forget about individual or coordinated effort, no Arab country is able to decisively move on an Islamic State and the fight for a Caliphate. The problem can only be solved by military action and reshaping of the Middle East. Say goodbye to Sykes-Picot borders."

The Israeli defense is well prepared for capabilities and tactics aligned with the mission of its enemies but not for the scope aligned with the long-term The Islamic State vision.

August 17, 2014 Ultrascan Humint Alerts

The Israeli defense is well prepared for capabilities and tactics aligned with the mission of its enemies but not for the scope aligned with the long-term vision to establish an Islamic caliphate.

Israel, Gaza, the Middle East

After the unexpected (!) barrage of rockets from Gaza, Israel will react predictable strong and provoke attacks by more of the state and non state actors with a vision of an Islamic Caliphate.

Analyzing the Middle East one should not only consider their regional goals as a fighting proxy but also the wider scope of their mission statement', to establish an Islamic Caliphate. Which is a common goal of several powerful state and non-state actors e.g., all affiliates and off shoots of Al Qaeda, but also Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah, Turkey, Qatar, Iran.... [..]

The Israeli defense is well prepared for capabilities and tactics aligned with the mission of its enemies but not for the scope aligned with the long-term vision to establish an Islamic Caliphate.
-  May 13, 2021

Hezbollah Drone Footage Targets Israel

"Hezbollah revealed extremely sensitive Israeli targets"

Alert June 20, 2024 - Propaganda (with some facts) created by Israel to invite and explain attacks by Hezbollah AND Iran.
It shows recent footage recorded with a new generation UAV - drone shows locations of the Iron Dome batteries in Haifa, the David Sling batteries in Haifa, the Arrow-3 batteries in Haifa, Israel's 'Sa'ar' missile warships in Haifa Port, Israel's military industrial complex and logistics, etcetera. It seems the drone avoided detection by Israel Iron dome. Hezbollah also claims at this moment it controls 21 available Kinzhal hypersonic missiles .

The threat is significant, but Hezbollah's real power is overestimated. In retrospect, it will turn out that the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon will be the shortest part of the war for the Middle East and that Lebanon will be decapitated from its southern part. As part of the redistribution of the Middle East.

Houthis received Iskander's with launching trucks and 4 hypersonic Kinzhals

Alert June 13, 2024 - Houthis received Iskander missiles with launching trucks and 4 hypersonic Kinzhal

Last summer they were trained to use the equipment.
Both missile systems can carry conventional and multi nuclear payloads that disperse around large areas.

Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, can be launched from multiple platforms, including aircraft and ground-based systems. With speeds up to Mach 10 the missiles  can penetrate air and missile defence systems. 

On Wednesday June 5, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia could provide long-range weapons to countries with a view to attacking Western targets. Russia could arm the West’s enemies with missiles if Ukraine uses NATO-supplied weapons to strike Russian territory.

Biden says Iran has nuclear weapon and JCPOA is dead

Biden - Iran has a nuclear weapon and JCPOA is dead

A video clip surfaced on the internet - Tuesday 20 12 2022

Video surfaces of Biden saying the Iran nuclear deal is ‘dead’; White House doesn’t deny.

Clip from November shows US president telling activists who pulled him aside in California that he won't declare publicly that deal is dead.

"But they do have a nuclear weapon, that they'll represent"

Attack Iran

If provoked by Iran !? Iran will be attacked from Iraq (- 2020)



The allies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Assad government in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza are under pressure as result of the war in the area and their value is rapidly declining as vital part of Iran's strategy to face any possible attack by the USA due to Iran's nuclear program.

Trump, Netanyahu and Pompeo

The Attack On Iran

(narratives in the doctrine 2007-2016-2017-2020-2021)

Under the current circumstances, the original plan is still active. Since July 2007, the first option is to strike Iran from another country in the Middle East, not a direct strike by Israel or the USA. For example, from Iraq.

Today, that narrative still suits everyone involved. Especially US Presidents and Israeli Prime-ministers.

International Forces deployment in the Middle East

International Forces Deployment in the MidEast



October 31 2023 The third US Naval group arrives in the Middle East. Two aircraft carriers, F-15s, F-16s, Eurofighters, Patriot Missiles, THAAD batteries, destroyers, and Marines.

One doesn't need to be a genius to recognize that these formations are planned during a decade.

B52 bomber
B-52 Stratofortress - Guam - Tinian - Mariana Islands
Iran IRGC - Alert Sept 2022 - Ongoing Intelligence, Surveillance, Counter Surveillance - HUMINT and AML research revealed Travel Patterns, Funding, Support, Facilitators for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria

Iran IRGC - Lebanon and Syria

Alert October 03 2022

Ongoing Intelligence, Surveillance, Counter Surveillance HUMINT and AML research revealed: Travel Patterns, Funding, Support, Facilitators for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.

See Map

HMS_Diamond_deployed_to_the_Persian_Gulf
HMS Diamond deployed to the Persian Gulf - November 22, 2023
Princesses and Princes of twelve monarchies in Europe under threat

Princesses and Princes

Alert! January 16 2022
Threat to Ecosystems Heads of State and Monarchies

Iran is defending itself from a ‘brazen’ plan to change its government. This Western policy is perceived as a death threat, and therefore it instructed its intelligence services to mirror that policy towards leaders in the West.  same policy towards leaders in the West. In this aspect, it's impossible to overstate the significance of General Qasem Soleimani's killing!

The IRGC has infiltrated the personal ecosystems of heads of state and poses a clear and current danger to them, the princesses and princes of European monarchies, wherever they are!

(terror) proxies typically disguise Iran's revenge attacks within the military domain or both.

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Injection Needle Neck

January 2020 - Alert!

Spymaster Qasem Soleimani

Iran 2020 - Alert!

It's impossible to overstate the significance of General Qasem Soleimani's killing!

Taking out the spymaster who was successfully building an empire across the shiite crescent.

For Iran this means a long term degrading of a strategic capability.

General Soleimani was the real boss of Hezbollah.
With his death Iran not just lost control over its international organized crime, money laundering and terrorism organization.

General Esmail Ghaani - New spymaster QUD Force Iran IRGC

The roots with Hezbollah run deeper than that. His death is disrupting their global operations and across the region.

General Esmail Ghaani of Quds Force is the new spymaster. With as specialty counter intelligence.
 
His remit was east of Iran like Afghanistan and Pakistan where he gained influence with the Taliban and al Qaeda (affiliates).

Threats from Iran are usually veiled by proxies.

The people of Iran were emotionally raided by the killing of General Soleimani.

Possible Head of State assassination plot - Trunp

Therefore revenge attacks will only be effective if straightforward, within the military realm and/or in any way establish...

"SHOCK and AWE"


or


falls in that category and within Iran's capabilities

Ali Khamenei - Supreme Leader of Iran

The USA will relapse into the usual political dilly-dally!

"Seemingly" unwilling to support aggressive steps when necessary.

By doing so, it is leaving its allies in the Middle East and western Europe at their own peril!

An opportunity for aggressors to show off their most devastating and geopolitically disruptive weapons.

The damage will be done and to (avoid or) revenge such attacks by Iran, a topple of their government is in the intelligence cards.

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